What's the Likelihood of Failure?

2026-10-19 7:08 AM | Admin (Administrator)

We've got all the answers

v2 of the Tree Risk Model is complete. It's the Model that drives VALID's Detailed Assessments, and underpins the risk ratings in our Tree Risk-Benefit Management Strategies.

In this latest version, we've coded ALL the Likelihood of Failure outcomes!

This is a evolutionary milestone in how we do tree risk with VALID, and it'll be built into the next VALID Tree Assessment App.

It's a big break through because it's with Likelihood of Failure where we find the loudest noise (noise is variation in decision making).

What this means is whenever you carry out a Detailed Assessment, you'll have exactly the same F - Likelihood of Failure, with the same VALID colours and Base Rate, as every other Validator.

All you need to do is practice good decision hygiene.

Go through each letter of VALID, colour it, and make brief notes to explain that colour.

Then figure out which Green or Red letter is having the greatest influence on the Likelihood of Failure - your Base Rate.

And we do the rest.

These F - Likelihood of Failure outcomes work with v1 of the Risk Model in the current Tree Risk App.

That means you can use this part of the v2 Risk Model now.

You're coming to Validator Training
Here's your simple interactive mobile Excel Workbook with dropdowns to use as cheatsheet.

This how to install it.

1) Install the Microsoft Excel App on your device

2) Log in to your Microsoft Account (you need an account for it to work - it's free)

3) Download and open this file in Excel

F - Likelihood of Failure Interactive - Mobile

We'll show you how to use it in Validator Training.

Contact: help@validtreerisk.com

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